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KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
94%
EPS
67%
ICON
45%
HRES
30%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 64.7¢Risks 64.70u
VS
HRESNO 35.3¢Risks 35.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.30u · HRES −35.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 88.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 94.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 72.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00ICON: 39.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:00ICON: 39.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00ICON: 39.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 39.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 45.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0010-20 04:5110-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:16+00:0088.9%72.3%98.7%18.9%39.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:0088.9%72.3%98.9%18.9%39.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0088.9%72.3%98.9%18.9%39.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:0088.9%72.3%98.9%18.9%39.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:0093.9%72.3%98.9%18.9%45.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:0093.9%72.3%98.9%18.9%45.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:0093.9%72.3%98.9%18.9%45.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0093.9%72.3%98.9%18.9%45.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:0093.9%67.4%99.1%30.3%45.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0093.9%67.4%99.1%30.3%45.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0093.9%67.4%99.1%30.3%45.0%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0093.9%67.4%99.1%30.3%45.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0094.0%67.4%99.1%30.3%45.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%67.5°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single94%66.1°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble67%60.9°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend61%61.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%60.0°F3.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
ICON45%59.0°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES30%57.2°F4.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗