KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

87%

46%

26%

17%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

HRESNO 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.90u · HRES −45.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	—	—	—	75.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	1.3%	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	1.9%	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	4.3%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	13.5%	60.0%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	52.8%	81.1%	18.0%	—	70.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	44.9%	62.3%	44.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	23.4%	69.1%	29.6%	—	43.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	69.5%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	57.1%	69.8%	28.8%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	3.6%	29.7%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	49.2%	72.1%	33.0%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	23.3%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	23.4%	64.6%	13.6%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	18.4%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	12.4%	62.7%	19.0%	—	5.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	26.9%	63.9%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	21.8%	57.7%	28.7%	44.2%	11.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	53.0%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	51.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	66.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	66.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	61.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	61.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	59.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	57.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗