KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

86%

46%

26%

17%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 56.5¢Risks 56.50u

HRESNO 43.5¢Risks 43.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +43.50u · HRES −43.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	79.7%	62.6%	90.4%	42.8%	49.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	79.7%	62.6%	90.0%	42.8%	49.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	79.7%	62.6%	90.0%	42.8%	49.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	79.7%	62.6%	90.0%	42.8%	49.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	79.7%	62.6%	90.0%	42.8%	49.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:51+00:00	87.5%	62.6%	90.0%	15.8%	72.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	87.5%	62.6%	90.0%	15.8%	72.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	87.5%	62.6%	90.0%	15.8%	72.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	87.5%	62.6%	90.0%	15.8%	72.2%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	87.5%	48.5%	92.4%	15.8%	72.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	87.5%	48.5%	92.4%	15.8%	72.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	87.5%	48.5%	92.4%	15.8%	72.2%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	87.5%	48.5%	92.4%	15.8%	72.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	77.9%	48.5%	92.4%	15.8%	72.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00	87.9%	54.6%	93.7%	25.0%	66.5%
2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00	87.9%	54.6%	95.3%	25.0%	66.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	87.9%	54.6%	95.3%	25.0%	66.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	87.9%	54.6%	95.3%	25.0%	66.5%
2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00	90.8%	54.6%	95.3%	19.5%	37.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	90.8%	54.6%	95.3%	19.5%	37.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	90.8%	54.6%	95.3%	19.5%	37.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	90.8%	54.6%	95.3%	19.5%	37.2%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	90.8%	54.6%	95.3%	19.5%	37.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00	90.8%	55.9%	98.3%	19.5%	37.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	90.8%	55.9%	98.3%	19.5%	37.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	90.8%	55.9%	98.3%	19.5%	37.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	68.4%	55.9%	98.3%	19.5%	37.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	68.5%	55.9%	98.3%	19.5%	37.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:15+00:00	68.5%	44.1%	98.3%	19.5%	37.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	68.5%	44.1%	98.3%	19.5%	37.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	68.5%	44.1%	98.3%	19.5%	37.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	68.5%	44.1%	95.5%	19.5%	37.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	68.5%	44.1%	95.5%	19.5%	37.1%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	68.5%	44.1%	95.5%	19.5%	37.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	67.7%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	67.7%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	67.7%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	67.7%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	67.7%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	67.7%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	67.7%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	67.7%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	78.4%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	78.4%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	78.4%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00	78.4%	44.1%	95.5%	10.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00	86.0%	46.2%	96.3%	16.7%	26.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	67.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	66.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	61.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	61.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	59.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	57.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗