KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

78%

54%

26%

15%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.3¢Risks 50.30u

HRESNO 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.70u · HRES −49.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	83.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	7.5%	46.6%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	38.9%	70.2%	10.2%	—	57.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	31.0%	47.8%	31.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	13.4%	54.6%	17.9%	—	29.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	54.7%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	41.3%	54.8%	16.9%	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	1.4%	17.3%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	33.0%	56.6%	19.5%	—	12.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.4%	12.3%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	12.2%	47.4%	6.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	8.8%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	5.3%	44.5%	9.0%	—	2.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	13.7%	45.3%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	10.2%	38.5%	14.7%	26.3%	4.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	33.5%	—	—	3.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	67.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	54%	64.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	61.8°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	57.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗