WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
85%
AIFS
78%
ICON
54%
EPS
26%
HRES
15%
Consensus
50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 50.3¢Risks 50.30u
VS
HRESNO 49.7¢Risks 49.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.70u · HRES −49.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00AIFS Single: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.0% · 2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 79.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.2% · 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00IFS HRES: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00IFS HRES: 15.4% · 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00ICON: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:00ICON: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00ICON: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00ICON: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00ICON: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:00ICON: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00ICON: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:0010-18 14:5510-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:55:32+00:0064.2%21.0%82.9%8.9%60.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:0064.2%25.7%82.9%8.9%60.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:0064.2%25.7%82.9%8.9%60.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:0064.2%25.7%79.6%8.9%60.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:16+00:0064.2%25.7%79.6%8.9%60.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:0064.2%25.7%79.6%8.9%60.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:0074.8%25.7%79.6%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:0074.8%25.7%79.6%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:0074.8%25.7%79.6%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:0074.8%25.7%79.6%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:0074.8%25.7%79.6%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:0074.8%25.7%85.2%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:0074.8%25.7%85.2%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:0074.8%25.7%85.2%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:0077.9%25.7%85.2%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:0077.9%25.7%85.2%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:0077.9%25.7%85.2%15.4%53.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:0077.9%25.7%85.2%15.4%53.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 285%67.8°F4.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single78%67.3°F5.0°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON54%64.1°F6.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
NWS forecast54%64.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
National Blend46%63.0°F4.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble26%61.8°F2.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES15%57.6°F5.8°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗