KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

54%

28%

22%

17%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.05u

EPSNO 57.9¢Risks 57.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.95u · EPS −57.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	3.8%	33.6%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	26.3%	57.0%	5.2%	—	43.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	19.4%	33.7%	19.4%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	6.8%	39.4%	9.7%	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	39.2%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	26.8%	39.0%	8.7%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	0.4%	8.8%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	19.5%	40.1%	10.1%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	5.6%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	5.4%	30.7%	2.4%	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	3.6%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	1.9%	27.4%	3.6%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	5.9%	27.6%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	4.0%	21.8%	6.2%	13.1%	1.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	17.7%	—	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	67.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	66.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	28%	61.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	60.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	62.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗