KPIT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

54%

28%

22%

17%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.1¢Risks 42.05u

EPSNO 57.9¢Risks 57.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.95u · EPS −57.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:00+00:00	68.1%	42.6%	85.1%	45.1%	54.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:17+00:00	68.1%	42.6%	85.1%	45.1%	54.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	68.1%	42.6%	82.7%	45.1%	54.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	68.1%	42.6%	82.7%	45.1%	54.0%
2026-10-17T07:43:59+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	82.7%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	82.7%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:24+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	82.7%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	82.7%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	77.0%	42.6%	82.7%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	77.0%	19.4%	77.3%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	77.0%	19.4%	77.3%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	77.0%	19.4%	77.3%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	67.8%	19.4%	77.3%	29.5%	44.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	67.8%	19.5%	77.3%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:27+00:00	67.8%	16.8%	77.3%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	67.8%	16.8%	77.3%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	67.8%	16.8%	72.5%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	67.8%	16.8%	72.5%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	67.8%	16.8%	72.5%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	67.8%	16.8%	72.5%	29.3%	44.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	62.3%	16.8%	72.5%	21.5%	28.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	62.3%	16.8%	72.5%	21.5%	28.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	62.3%	16.8%	72.5%	21.5%	28.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	62.3%	16.8%	72.5%	21.5%	28.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	62.3%	16.8%	67.3%	21.5%	28.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	62.3%	16.8%	67.3%	21.5%	28.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	62.3%	16.8%	67.3%	21.5%	28.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	62.3%	16.8%	67.3%	21.5%	28.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	53.7%	16.8%	67.3%	21.5%	28.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	53.7%	16.8%	67.3%	21.5%	28.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	53.7%	16.8%	67.3%	21.5%	28.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	67.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	66.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	28%	61.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	60.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	62.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗