KPIT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

90%

83%

67%

57%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 77.8¢Risks 77.85u

EPSNO 22.2¢Risks 22.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.15u · EPS −22.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	42.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	48.8%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	79.3%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	7.0%	84.5%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	64.4%	59.1%	5.2%	—	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	72.8%	58.7%	20.4%	—	62.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.8%	66.3%	74.9%	45.4%	—	62.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	89.6%	83.2%	60.3%	59.5%	73.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	—	77.5%	—	—	76.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	72.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	68.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	83%	68.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	64.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	62.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗