WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPIT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
AIFS
90%
ICON
83%
HRES
67%
EPS
57%
Consensus
81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 77.8¢Risks 77.85u
VS
EPSNO 22.2¢Risks 22.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +22.15u · EPS −22.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T04:30:22+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 89.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00AIFS Single: 92.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00AIFS Single: 90.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00AIFS Single: 90.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:22+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS HRES: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00ICON: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T04:30:22+00:00ICON: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:00ICON: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 74.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00ICON: 83.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:22+00:0089.5%43.7%96.8%63.9%74.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:55+00:0089.5%43.7%97.1%63.9%74.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0089.5%43.7%97.1%63.9%74.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0089.5%43.7%97.1%63.9%74.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:38+00:0092.3%43.7%97.1%67.0%83.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0092.3%43.7%97.1%67.0%83.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0092.3%43.7%97.1%67.0%83.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0092.3%43.7%97.1%67.0%83.6%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:0092.3%43.7%97.1%67.0%83.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:0092.3%56.8%98.9%67.0%83.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:0092.3%56.8%98.9%67.0%83.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:0092.3%56.8%98.9%67.0%83.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:0090.2%56.8%98.9%67.0%83.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0090.3%56.8%98.9%67.0%83.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%72.2°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single90%68.5°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON83%68.4°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend67%63.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES67%64.4°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble57%62.1°F3.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗