KPIT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

60%

50%

31%

<1%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.6¢Risks 36.65u

EPSNO 63.3¢Risks 63.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.35u · EPS −63.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	14.3%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	0.1%	16.7%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	15.8%	5.4%	0.0%	—	7.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	37.8%	10.6%	8.2%	7.6%	12.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	10.1%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	75.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	74.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	72.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	69.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗