KPIT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Pittsburgh, PAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

60%

50%

31%

<1%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 36.6¢Risks 36.65u

EPSNO 63.3¢Risks 63.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +63.35u · EPS −63.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:39+00:00	46.5%	0.5%	48.5%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	46.5%	0.5%	48.5%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	46.5%	0.5%	48.5%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	46.5%	0.5%	48.5%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	46.5%	0.5%	48.5%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00	46.5%	0.8%	57.8%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	46.5%	0.8%	57.8%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	46.5%	0.8%	57.8%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	37.7%	0.8%	57.8%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	37.7%	0.8%	57.8%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:16+00:00	37.7%	0.5%	57.8%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	37.7%	0.5%	57.8%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	37.7%	0.5%	57.8%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	37.7%	0.5%	41.5%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	37.7%	0.5%	41.5%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	37.7%	0.5%	41.5%	17.6%	7.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	39.7%	0.5%	41.5%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	39.7%	0.5%	41.5%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	39.7%	0.5%	41.5%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	39.7%	0.5%	41.5%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	39.7%	0.5%	41.5%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	39.7%	0.5%	57.8%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	39.7%	0.5%	57.8%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	39.7%	0.5%	57.8%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	31.3%	0.5%	57.8%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	31.3%	0.5%	57.8%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	31.3%	0.5%	57.8%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T04:03:56+00:00	31.3%	0.5%	57.8%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:17+00:00	31.3%	0.5%	57.8%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	31.3%	0.5%	58.5%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	31.3%	0.5%	58.5%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	31.3%	0.5%	58.5%	14.2%	45.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	58.5%	14.2%	60.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	58.5%	14.2%	60.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	58.5%	14.2%	60.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	58.5%	14.2%	60.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00	50.0%	0.7%	72.6%	30.8%	60.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	50.0%	0.7%	72.6%	30.8%	60.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	50.0%	0.7%	72.6%	30.8%	60.5%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	50.0%	0.7%	72.6%	30.8%	60.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	50.0%	0.7%	72.6%	30.8%	60.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	73%	75.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	74.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	72.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	69.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	64.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KPIT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPIT-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Pittsburgh runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗