KRDU / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

63%

62%

38%

25%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.0¢Risks 52.95u

WN2NO 47.0¢Risks 47.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.05u · WN2 −47.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	25.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	1.9%	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	53.8%	—	—	26.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	64.0%	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	1.4%	15.1%	—	—	49.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	82.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	75.9%	5.4%	—	49.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	52.9%	68.3%	31.0%	—	45.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	44.7%	90.7%	18.4%	—	52.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	45.2%	85.5%	30.1%	—	56.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.3%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	34.5%	82.7%	33.8%	—	54.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	42.4%	80.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	57.8%	73.8%	26.2%	—	65.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	55.4%	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	52.8%	69.5%	33.9%	—	53.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	63.0%	71.6%	—	—	59.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	68.7%	74.5%	28.7%	—	59.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	66.5%	76.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	64.1%	78.8%	38.8%	—	52.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	73.8%	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	72.7%	70.8%	41.3%	—	57.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	67.5%	73.3%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	68.0%	74.0%	41.9%	55.8%	54.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	65.3%	78.4%	42.8%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	59.9%	77.3%	43.8%	43.8%	52.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	52.6%	82.6%	39.8%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	52.7%	83.5%	42.0%	42.0%	42.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	59.7%	82.7%	32.5%	—	41.7%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	65.5%	82.8%	28.0%	40.0%	34.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	51.5%	77.6%	24.8%	—	24.8%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	51.6%	80.8%	26.3%	40.6%	23.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	70.5%	67.6%	30.9%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	94%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.0031
National Blend	88%	88.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0146
AIFS Single	81%	89.0°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0372
IFS Ensemble	63%	86.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.1362
IFS HRES	62%	86.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.1475
ICON	38%	84.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.3881
WeatherNext 2	25%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.5595

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261001-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗