KRDU / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

73%

60%

56%

14%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

WN2NO 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.00u · WN2 −55.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T03:04:12+00:00	74.1%	33.2%	26.9%	75.5%	68.4%
2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00	74.1%	33.2%	26.9%	75.5%	68.4%
2026-09-25T04:34:49+00:00	74.1%	33.2%	26.9%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T05:19:56+00:00	74.1%	33.2%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00	74.1%	33.2%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T06:50:09+00:00	74.1%	33.2%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T07:35:17+00:00	66.0%	33.2%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	66.0%	33.2%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T09:05:29+00:00	66.0%	33.2%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	66.0%	33.2%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00	66.0%	33.2%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T11:20:45+00:00	66.0%	18.8%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T12:05:52+00:00	66.0%	18.8%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T12:50:57+00:00	66.0%	18.8%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T13:36:02+00:00	70.7%	18.8%	28.2%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T14:23:04+00:00	70.7%	18.8%	28.3%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T15:08:10+00:00	70.7%	15.0%	28.3%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00	70.7%	15.0%	28.3%	75.5%	64.1%
2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00	70.7%	15.0%	28.3%	75.5%	58.0%
2026-09-25T17:23:29+00:00	70.7%	15.0%	29.9%	75.5%	58.0%
2026-09-27T14:40:03+00:00	72.7%	68.4%	20.8%	66.9%	60.8%
2026-09-27T15:25:28+00:00	72.7%	72.6%	20.8%	66.9%	60.8%
2026-09-27T16:10:33+00:00	72.7%	72.6%	20.8%	66.9%	60.8%
2026-09-27T16:55:39+00:00	72.7%	72.6%	14.3%	66.9%	55.9%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	72.7%	72.6%	14.3%	66.9%	55.9%
2026-09-27T18:25:55+00:00	72.7%	72.6%	14.3%	66.9%	55.9%
2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00	72.7%	72.6%	14.3%	66.9%	55.9%
2026-09-27T19:56:16+00:00	76.2%	72.6%	14.3%	60.2%	55.9%
2026-09-27T20:41:25+00:00	76.2%	72.6%	14.3%	60.2%	55.9%
2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00	76.2%	72.6%	14.3%	60.2%	55.9%
2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00	76.2%	72.6%	14.3%	60.2%	55.9%
2026-09-27T22:56:43+00:00	76.2%	72.6%	13.8%	60.2%	55.9%
2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00	76.2%	72.6%	13.8%	60.2%	55.9%
2026-09-28T00:26:55+00:00	76.2%	72.6%	13.8%	60.2%	55.9%
2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00	76.2%	72.6%	13.8%	60.2%	55.9%
2026-09-28T01:57:10+00:00	76.2%	72.6%	13.8%	60.2%	55.9%
2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00	76.2%	72.6%	13.8%	60.2%	55.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	76%	89.8°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.0566
IFS Ensemble	73%	88.0°F	2.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	0.0751
IFS HRES	60%	87.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.1584
ICON	56%	87.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.1945
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	52%	86.7°F	3.3°F	2026-09-27 06:00	0.2266
WeatherNext 2	14%	82.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.7430

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261001-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗