KRDU / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

73%

60%

56%

14%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.0¢Risks 45.00u

WN2NO 55.0¢Risks 55.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +55.00u · WN2 −55.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	44.1%	—	—	21.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	1.3%	—	—	20.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	47.5%	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	57.8%	—	—	34.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.9%	11.4%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	70.2%	3.8%	—	42.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	45.6%	61.6%	24.9%	—	38.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	37.2%	87.1%	13.8%	—	44.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	37.5%	80.5%	23.6%	—	48.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	0.1%	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	27.2%	76.8%	26.5%	—	45.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	34.2%	74.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	49.1%	66.2%	19.6%	—	57.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	46.4%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	43.6%	60.9%	25.9%	—	44.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	53.8%	63.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	59.6%	66.1%	21.0%	—	50.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	57.0%	68.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	54.1%	70.6%	29.4%	—	41.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	64.5%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	62.9%	60.8%	31.1%	—	46.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	56.7%	63.3%	0.0%	—	46.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	57.0%	63.7%	31.0%	44.2%	43.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	53.6%	68.5%	31.4%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	47.5%	66.9%	32.0%	32.0%	40.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	39.8%	73.1%	28.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	39.4%	73.9%	29.5%	29.5%	29.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	45.8%	72.4%	21.1%	—	28.8%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	51.4%	72.0%	17.2%	26.8%	22.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	36.6%	64.8%	14.4%	—	14.4%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	36.1%	68.3%	15.2%	26.3%	13.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	54.9%	51.6%	18.1%	—	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	76%	89.8°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	0.0566
IFS Ensemble	73%	88.0°F	2.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	0.0751
IFS HRES	60%	87.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.1584
ICON	56%	87.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.1945
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 14:00	0.2070
National Blend	52%	86.7°F	3.3°F	2026-09-27 06:00	0.2266
WeatherNext 2	14%	82.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	0.7430

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261001-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗