KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

83%

74%

73%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 84.5¢Risks 84.45u

ICONNO 15.5¢Risks 15.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +15.55u · ICON −15.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	96.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	89.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	88.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	—	—	—	85.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	45.2%	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	99.9%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	27.1%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	78.1%	34.3%	61.8%	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	92.4%	70.3%	70.3%	—	86.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	99.5%	78.9%	82.6%	—	84.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	90.0%	87.7%	80.0%	—	78.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	8.5%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	95.7%	97.0%	82.2%	—	74.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	90.1%	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	86.4%	97.2%	61.3%	—	46.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	76.5%	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	64.4%	90.2%	13.4%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	73.9%	88.7%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	63.4%	84.7%	17.1%	—	46.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	78.1%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	79.5%	75.7%	78.8%	—	56.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	62.5%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	80.2%	46.7%	77.8%	—	32.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	75.1%	36.7%	0.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	77.6%	62.6%	76.7%	—	64.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	81.7%	67.5%	72.7%	—	64.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	86.3%	71.3%	70.2%	20.8%	63.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	85.0%	78.1%	67.5%	—	65.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	82.7%	81.8%	68.1%	33.1%	68.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	87.5%	78.9%	82.7%	66.2%	—	70.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	79.8%	90.5%	66.9%	34.5%	74.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	79.8%	89.5%	66.2%	—	63.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	75.0%	91.7%	75.0%	30.3%	66.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	81.9%	90.1%	79.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	65.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0020
WeatherNext 2	94%	62.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0042
IFS Ensemble	83%	61.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0276
IFS HRES	74%	60.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0671
ICON	73%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0708
National Blend	68%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗