KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

83%

74%

73%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 84.5¢Risks 84.45u

ICONNO 15.5¢Risks 15.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +15.55u · ICON −15.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:15+00:00	95.0%	55.2%	90.2%	56.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	95.0%	55.2%	90.2%	56.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	95.0%	55.2%	90.2%	56.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	95.0%	55.2%	94.7%	56.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	95.0%	55.2%	94.7%	56.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	95.0%	55.2%	94.7%	56.8%	78.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	93.6%	55.2%	94.7%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	93.6%	55.2%	94.7%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	93.6%	55.2%	94.7%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	93.6%	55.2%	94.7%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	93.6%	55.2%	94.7%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:21+00:00	93.6%	55.2%	93.9%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	93.6%	55.2%	93.9%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	93.6%	55.2%	93.9%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	94.2%	55.2%	93.9%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	94.2%	55.2%	93.9%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	94.2%	55.2%	93.9%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	94.2%	55.2%	93.9%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00	94.2%	55.2%	93.9%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	94.2%	55.2%	94.3%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	94.2%	55.2%	94.3%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	94.2%	55.2%	94.3%	72.1%	74.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00	95.5%	55.2%	94.3%	74.1%	73.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	95.5%	55.2%	94.3%	74.1%	73.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	95.5%	55.2%	94.3%	74.1%	73.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	95.5%	55.2%	94.3%	74.1%	73.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	95.5%	55.2%	94.3%	74.1%	73.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	95.5%	83.9%	93.5%	74.1%	73.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	95.5%	83.9%	93.5%	74.1%	73.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	95.5%	83.9%	93.5%	74.1%	73.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	95.5%	83.9%	93.5%	74.1%	73.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	95.5%	83.4%	93.5%	74.1%	73.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	65.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0020
WeatherNext 2	94%	62.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0042
IFS Ensemble	83%	61.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0276
IFS HRES	74%	60.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0671
ICON	73%	60.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0708
National Blend	68%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗