KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

79%

65%

56%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 74.6¢Risks 74.60u

ICONNO 25.4¢Risks 25.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +25.40u · ICON −25.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	95.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	84.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	39.2%	—	—	84.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	99.8%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	43.5%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	21.8%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	72.5%	28.1%	54.9%	—	74.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	89.4%	63.6%	63.6%	—	82.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	99.2%	73.0%	77.2%	—	79.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	86.0%	83.2%	73.9%	—	71.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	5.8%	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	93.4%	95.3%	76.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	85.8%	95.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	81.0%	95.5%	52.6%	—	37.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	69.0%	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	55.5%	85.6%	9.0%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	65.7%	83.5%	—	—	27.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	53.9%	78.2%	11.6%	—	36.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	70.1%	83.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	71.5%	67.0%	70.6%	—	45.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	52.1%	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	71.8%	36.1%	68.9%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	65.4%	26.7%	0.4%	—	38.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	68.0%	51.2%	66.9%	—	53.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.6%	72.7%	56.0%	61.9%	—	52.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	78.3%	59.9%	58.7%	13.0%	51.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	76.2%	67.5%	55.1%	—	52.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	72.7%	71.6%	55.4%	22.0%	55.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	67.5%	72.4%	52.8%	—	56.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	68.2%	82.8%	52.9%	22.2%	61.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	67.5%	80.8%	51.5%	—	48.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	60.9%	83.9%	60.9%	18.1%	51.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	69.0%	80.8%	66.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	65.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0041
WeatherNext 2	93%	63.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0055
IFS Ensemble	79%	62.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0445
National Blend	75%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
IFS HRES	65%	60.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1246
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
ICON	56%	60.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1971

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗