KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

93%

79%

65%

56%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 74.6¢Risks 74.60u

ICONNO 25.4¢Risks 25.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +25.40u · ICON −25.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00	92.6%	78.9%	87.9%	64.7%	63.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	92.6%	78.9%	87.9%	64.7%	63.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	92.6%	78.9%	87.9%	64.7%	63.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	92.6%	78.9%	87.9%	64.7%	63.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	92.6%	78.9%	87.9%	64.7%	63.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	92.6%	78.9%	87.9%	64.7%	63.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	93.0%	78.9%	87.9%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	93.0%	78.9%	87.9%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	93.0%	78.9%	87.9%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	93.0%	78.9%	87.9%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	93.0%	78.9%	89.8%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	93.0%	78.9%	89.8%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	93.0%	78.9%	89.8%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	93.0%	78.9%	89.8%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	93.6%	78.9%	89.8%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	93.6%	78.9%	89.8%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	93.6%	78.9%	89.8%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	93.6%	78.9%	89.8%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	93.6%	78.9%	92.6%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	93.6%	78.9%	92.6%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	93.6%	78.9%	92.6%	64.7%	55.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	93.6%	78.9%	92.6%	64.7%	55.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	65.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0041
WeatherNext 2	93%	63.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0055
IFS Ensemble	79%	62.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0445
National Blend	75%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
IFS HRES	65%	60.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1246
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
ICON	56%	60.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1971

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗