KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

38%

38%

36%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.2¢Risks 39.20u

HRESNO 60.8¢Risks 60.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.80u · HRES −60.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:48+00:00	68.1%	60.7%	84.3%	79.0%	81.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	68.1%	64.4%	84.3%	79.0%	81.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	68.1%	64.4%	79.7%	79.0%	81.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	68.1%	64.4%	79.7%	79.0%	81.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	68.1%	64.4%	79.7%	79.0%	81.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	68.1%	64.4%	79.7%	79.0%	81.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	73.9%	64.4%	79.7%	62.6%	95.8%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	73.9%	64.4%	79.7%	62.6%	95.8%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	73.9%	64.4%	79.7%	62.6%	95.8%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	73.9%	64.4%	79.7%	62.6%	95.8%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	73.9%	64.4%	80.3%	62.6%	95.8%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	73.9%	64.4%	80.3%	62.6%	95.8%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	73.9%	64.4%	80.3%	62.6%	95.8%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	73.9%	64.4%	80.3%	62.6%	95.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	78.6%	64.4%	80.3%	62.6%	95.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	78.6%	64.4%	80.3%	62.6%	95.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	78.6%	64.4%	80.3%	62.6%	95.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:26+00:00	78.6%	64.4%	80.3%	62.6%	95.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	78.6%	64.4%	83.2%	62.6%	95.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	78.6%	64.4%	83.2%	62.6%	95.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00	78.6%	64.4%	83.2%	62.6%	95.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	78.6%	64.4%	83.2%	62.6%	95.7%
2026-10-13T08:02:56+00:00	66.6%	64.4%	83.2%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	66.6%	64.4%	83.2%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	66.6%	64.4%	83.2%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	66.6%	64.4%	83.2%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	66.6%	50.9%	55.8%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	66.6%	50.9%	55.8%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	66.6%	50.9%	55.8%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	66.6%	50.9%	55.8%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	64.2%	50.9%	55.8%	52.1%	75.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	64.2%	54.6%	55.8%	52.1%	75.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	64.2%	54.6%	55.8%	52.1%	75.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	64.2%	54.6%	55.8%	52.0%	75.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	64.2%	54.6%	62.4%	52.0%	75.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	64.2%	54.6%	62.4%	52.0%	75.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	64.2%	54.6%	62.4%	52.0%	75.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	65.7%	54.6%	62.4%	52.0%	83.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	65.7%	54.6%	62.4%	52.0%	83.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	65.7%	54.6%	62.4%	52.0%	83.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:05+00:00	65.7%	54.6%	62.4%	52.0%	83.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	65.7%	54.6%	62.4%	52.0%	83.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	65.7%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	65.7%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	65.7%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	53.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	53.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	53.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	53.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	53.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	53.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	53.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	53.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	83.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	55.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	55.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	55.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	55.2%	54.6%	64.2%	52.1%	63.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:23+00:00	55.2%	54.6%	64.2%	23.6%	63.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:40+00:00	55.2%	37.0%	48.9%	23.6%	63.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	55.2%	37.0%	48.9%	23.6%	63.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	55.2%	37.0%	48.9%	23.6%	63.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	59.4%	37.0%	48.9%	23.6%	63.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	59.4%	37.0%	48.9%	23.6%	63.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	59.4%	38.5%	48.9%	23.6%	63.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	59.4%	38.5%	48.9%	23.6%	63.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	59.4%	38.5%	48.9%	23.6%	63.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	59.4%	38.5%	38.4%	23.6%	63.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	59.4%	38.5%	38.4%	23.6%	63.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	59.4%	38.5%	38.4%	23.6%	63.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	63.6%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	63.6%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	63.6%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	63.6%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	63.6%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	63.6%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	63.6%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	63.6%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	69.1%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	69.1%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	69.1%	38.5%	38.4%	9.3%	36.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	65.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.4775
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3036
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
IFS Ensemble	38%	61.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1482
WeatherNext 2	38%	62.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1475
ICON	36%	61.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1310
IFS HRES	9%	56.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0086

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗