KRDU / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

38%

38%

36%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.2¢Risks 39.20u

HRESNO 60.8¢Risks 60.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.80u · HRES −60.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	18.9%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	98.8%	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	20.7%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	7.2%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	45.8%	9.9%	28.1%	—	47.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	69.6%	35.0%	35.0%	—	57.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	95.0%	43.9%	49.2%	—	52.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	61.0%	56.4%	43.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	0.8%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	74.9%	79.9%	45.0%	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	58.5%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	50.0%	79.2%	20.8%	—	11.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	34.2%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	21.6%	55.5%	1.2%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	29.2%	50.9%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	19.0%	42.3%	1.5%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	31.7%	49.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	32.1%	27.6%	31.2%	—	12.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	15.6%	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	30.1%	7.3%	27.3%	—	3.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	23.1%	4.0%	0.0%	—	7.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	24.2%	12.7%	23.3%	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	27.3%	14.5%	18.3%	—	12.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	32.0%	15.9%	15.1%	0.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	28.0%	20.0%	12.2%	—	10.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	23.0%	22.0%	11.3%	1.7%	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	17.3%	21.1%	9.2%	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	16.3%	30.5%	8.3%	1.3%	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	14.4%	26.0%	7.0%	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	9.6%	27.6%	9.6%	0.6%	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.3%	21.6%	10.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	69%	65.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.4775
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3036
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
IFS Ensemble	38%	61.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1482
WeatherNext 2	38%	62.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1475
ICON	36%	61.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1310
IFS HRES	9%	56.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0086

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗