KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

92%

90%

84%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 91.5¢Risks 45.75u

HRESNO 8.5¢Risks 4.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.25u · HRES −4.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	87.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	85.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	2.9%	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	79.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	74.8%	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	8.2%	96.1%	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	87.8%	91.3%	30.5%	—	88.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	96.2%	95.9%	96.4%	—	89.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	97.9%	98.2%	88.6%	—	89.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	97.3%	99.8%	56.4%	—	78.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	1.2%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	72.8%	98.5%	2.5%	—	60.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	80.5%	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	69.3%	94.1%	1.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	85.5%	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	69.5%	89.0%	76.3%	—	61.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	88.7%	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	81.0%	72.1%	84.1%	—	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	82.3%	49.0%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	83.7%	84.9%	80.3%	75.7%	—	67.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	92.4%	81.0%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	90.6%	84.5%	70.8%	0.0%	76.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	94.6%	87.7%	0.0%	—	82.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.0%	90.0%	89.0%	81.0%	64.8%	82.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	85.5%	89.2%	78.4%	—	83.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	95.4%	82.6%	91.5%	77.3%	0.0%	82.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	78.1%	88.5%	76.2%	—	74.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	74.9%	86.6%	71.6%	63.2%	77.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	85.3%	88.9%	73.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	87.0%	91.1%	76.6%	80.9%	82.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	85.6%	96.6%	81.9%	—	78.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	83.9%	97.1%	80.8%	82.9%	78.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	92.1%	96.6%	88.5%	—	90.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	99%	70.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	98%	67.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0004
IFS Ensemble	92%	65.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0072
ICON	90%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0104
IFS HRES	84%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0253
National Blend	72%	64.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0795
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗