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KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
99%
WN2
98%
EPS
92%
ICON
90%
HRES
84%
Consensus
94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 91.5¢Risks 45.75u
VS
HRESNO 8.5¢Risks 4.25u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.25u · HRES −4.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 97.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 98.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00AIFS Single: 98.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 98.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00AIFS Single: 98.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 98.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 98.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 98.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 98.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00AIFS Single: 98.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 91.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00ICON: 88.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00ICON: 89.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00ICON: 89.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 89.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00ICON: 89.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 89.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 89.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 89.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 89.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 89.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00ICON: 89.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:0097.6%47.8%97.8%77.0%88.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:0097.6%47.8%97.1%77.0%88.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:0097.6%47.8%97.1%77.0%88.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:0097.6%47.8%97.1%77.0%88.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:0098.2%47.8%97.1%84.1%89.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0098.2%47.8%97.1%84.1%89.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:0098.2%47.8%97.1%84.1%89.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0098.2%47.8%97.1%84.1%89.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0098.2%47.8%97.1%84.1%89.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0098.2%91.9%97.9%84.1%89.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0098.2%91.9%97.9%84.1%89.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0098.2%91.9%97.9%84.1%89.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:0098.9%91.9%97.9%84.1%89.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0098.9%91.5%97.9%84.1%89.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single99%70.8°F4.1°F2026-10-17 06:000.0001
WeatherNext 298%67.8°F3.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0004
IFS Ensemble92%65.9°F3.2°F2026-10-17 00:000.0072
ICON90%66.0°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0104
IFS HRES84%65.6°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:000.0253
National Blend72%64.0°F4.3°F2026-10-17 06:000.0795
NWS forecast56%62.0°F3.4°F2026-10-17 03:000.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗