KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

91%

81%

73%

72%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.7¢Risks 83.70u

ICONNO 16.3¢Risks 16.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.30u · ICON −16.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	77.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	1.4%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	—	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	63.4%	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	4.2%	92.3%	—	—	86.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	79.1%	84.2%	19.4%	—	80.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	92.1%	91.6%	92.4%	—	81.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	95.0%	95.6%	79.5%	—	80.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	93.6%	99.2%	40.5%	—	65.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	0.4%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	57.5%	96.1%	0.9%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	66.6%	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	52.6%	86.9%	0.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	72.9%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	51.8%	77.7%	60.0%	—	43.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	76.9%	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	65.2%	53.9%	69.6%	—	12.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	66.5%	29.9%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.9%	69.7%	63.1%	57.2%	—	47.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	81.7%	63.5%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	77.8%	67.9%	50.0%	0.0%	56.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	85.9%	85.2%	72.4%	0.0%	—	64.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	75.8%	74.0%	61.5%	41.9%	63.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	67.5%	73.7%	57.2%	—	64.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	62.3%	77.3%	55.0%	0.0%	62.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	55.1%	70.9%	52.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	50.0%	66.9%	46.0%	36.8%	52.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	63.7%	70.0%	47.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	65.5%	73.2%	50.0%	55.8%	58.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	61.9%	85.6%	56.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	57.9%	86.6%	53.2%	56.3%	50.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	71.9%	84.0%	64.5%	—	67.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	70.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0024
WeatherNext 2	91%	67.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0086
IFS Ensemble	81%	66.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0376
IFS HRES	73%	66.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0734
ICON	72%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0767
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.2061

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗