KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

91%

81%

73%

72%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.7¢Risks 83.70u

ICONNO 16.3¢Risks 16.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.30u · ICON −16.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:15+00:00	85.3%	33.8%	84.3%	32.7%	71.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	85.3%	33.8%	84.3%	32.7%	71.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	85.3%	33.8%	84.3%	32.7%	71.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	85.3%	33.8%	93.9%	32.7%	71.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	85.3%	33.8%	93.9%	32.7%	71.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	85.3%	33.8%	93.9%	32.7%	71.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	90.1%	33.8%	93.9%	32.7%	75.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	90.1%	33.8%	93.9%	32.7%	75.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	90.1%	33.8%	93.9%	32.7%	75.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	90.1%	33.8%	93.9%	32.7%	75.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	90.1%	33.8%	93.9%	61.4%	75.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	90.1%	33.8%	92.3%	61.4%	75.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	90.1%	33.8%	92.3%	61.4%	75.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	90.1%	33.8%	92.3%	61.4%	75.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	93.6%	33.8%	92.3%	61.4%	75.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	93.6%	33.8%	92.3%	61.4%	75.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	93.6%	33.8%	92.3%	61.4%	75.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	93.6%	33.8%	92.3%	61.4%	75.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	96.4%	80.6%	91.7%	69.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	96.4%	80.6%	91.7%	69.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	96.4%	80.6%	91.7%	69.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	96.4%	80.6%	91.7%	69.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	96.4%	80.6%	91.7%	69.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	96.4%	80.6%	91.7%	69.6%	76.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	94.3%	80.6%	91.7%	72.9%	72.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	94.3%	80.6%	91.7%	72.9%	72.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	94.3%	80.6%	91.7%	72.9%	72.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	94.3%	80.6%	91.7%	72.9%	72.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	94.3%	80.6%	90.7%	72.9%	72.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	94.3%	80.6%	90.7%	72.9%	72.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	94.3%	80.6%	90.7%	72.9%	72.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	94.3%	80.6%	90.7%	72.9%	72.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	95.1%	80.6%	90.7%	72.9%	72.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	95.1%	80.6%	90.7%	72.9%	72.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	95.1%	80.6%	90.7%	72.9%	72.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	70.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0024
WeatherNext 2	91%	67.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0086
IFS Ensemble	81%	66.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0376
IFS HRES	73%	66.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0734
ICON	72%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0767
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1954
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.2061

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗