KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

73%

59%

44%

18%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.8¢Risks 49.80u

ICONNO 50.2¢Risks 50.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.20u · ICON −50.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	87.6%	59.8%	75.1%	54.9%	51.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	87.6%	59.8%	79.9%	54.9%	51.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	87.6%	59.8%	79.9%	54.9%	51.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	87.6%	59.8%	79.9%	54.9%	51.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	87.6%	59.8%	79.9%	54.9%	51.1%
2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00	89.3%	59.8%	79.9%	53.2%	25.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	89.3%	59.8%	79.9%	53.2%	25.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	89.3%	59.8%	79.9%	53.2%	25.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	89.3%	59.8%	79.9%	53.2%	25.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	89.3%	65.6%	75.4%	53.2%	25.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	89.3%	65.6%	75.4%	53.2%	25.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	89.3%	65.6%	75.4%	53.2%	25.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	89.3%	65.6%	75.4%	53.2%	25.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	84.5%	65.3%	75.4%	53.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:36+00:00	84.5%	65.3%	75.4%	53.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	84.5%	59.2%	75.4%	53.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	84.5%	59.2%	75.4%	53.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	84.5%	59.2%	70.9%	53.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	84.5%	59.2%	70.9%	53.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	84.5%	59.2%	70.9%	53.2%	25.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	82.6%	59.2%	70.9%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	82.6%	59.2%	70.9%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	82.6%	59.2%	70.9%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	82.6%	59.2%	70.9%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	82.6%	59.2%	70.9%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	82.6%	59.2%	69.7%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	82.6%	59.2%	69.7%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	82.6%	59.2%	69.7%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	82.0%	59.2%	69.7%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	82.0%	59.2%	69.7%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	82.0%	59.2%	69.7%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	82.0%	59.2%	69.7%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	82.0%	59.2%	69.7%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	82.0%	59.2%	73.2%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	82.0%	59.2%	73.2%	43.6%	17.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	82.0%	59.2%	73.2%	43.6%	17.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	69.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗