KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

73%

59%

44%

18%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.8¢Risks 49.80u

ICONNO 50.2¢Risks 50.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.20u · ICON −50.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	50.6%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.7%	1.9%	86.1%	—	—	77.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	67.7%	74.3%	11.2%	—	68.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.0%	85.2%	84.4%	85.6%	—	70.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.5%	89.7%	90.7%	67.0%	—	67.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	86.9%	97.8%	26.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	0.1%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	40.9%	91.0%	0.2%	—	28.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	50.0%	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	35.4%	75.2%	0.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	56.3%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	33.9%	61.8%	41.8%	—	26.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	60.3%	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	46.1%	34.8%	51.0%	—	5.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	47.0%	15.2%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	50.0%	42.8%	36.9%	—	28.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	64.5%	42.6%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	58.7%	46.7%	29.2%	0.0%	35.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	68.5%	51.1%	0.0%	—	42.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	54.6%	52.3%	38.5%	21.5%	40.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	44.0%	51.2%	33.6%	—	40.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	37.7%	55.0%	30.9%	0.0%	37.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.1%	30.2%	46.1%	28.0%	—	25.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	25.1%	40.7%	22.0%	15.7%	27.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	36.3%	43.1%	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	37.2%	45.7%	23.4%	28.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	82%	69.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗