KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

52%

46%

40%

17%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.0¢Risks 39.95u

EPSNO 60.1¢Risks 60.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +60.05u · EPS −60.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	13.0%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	0.1%	46.0%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	21.9%	28.1%	0.7%	—	23.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	40.6%	39.2%	41.3%	—	22.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	46.9%	49.2%	18.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	39.0%	73.2%	2.1%	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	0.0%	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	4.5%	45.0%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	6.7%	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.8%	19.6%	0.0%	—	2.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	7.8%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.1%	9.4%	3.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	8.1%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.5%	1.8%	4.6%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	3.4%	0.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	3.5%	2.4%	1.6%	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	6.8%	2.0%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	4.5%	2.3%	0.7%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	6.7%	2.6%	0.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.7%	2.4%	1.0%	0.2%	1.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	1.2%	1.9%	0.6%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.6%	2.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.3%	0.9%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	74.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.3944
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2852
AIFS Single	52%	72.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2652
IFS HRES	46%	71.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2153
WeatherNext 2	40%	71.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.1640
National Blend	37%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1354
IFS Ensemble	17%	68.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0292

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗