WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
63%
AIFS
52%
HRES
46%
WN2
40%
EPS
17%
Consensus
40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 40.0¢Risks 39.95u
VS
EPSNO 60.1¢Risks 60.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +60.05u · EPS −60.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 67.2% · 2026-10-13T04:15:26+00:00AIFS Single: 67.2% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00AIFS Single: 67.2% · 2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00AIFS Single: 67.2% · 2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00AIFS Single: 67.2% · 2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-13T08:02:56+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00AIFS Single: 51.5% · 2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00AIFS Single: 51.5% · 2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T04:15:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T08:02:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.0% · 2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.1% · 2026-10-13T04:15:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.3% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.3% · 2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.3% · 2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.3% · 2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.3% · 2026-10-13T08:02:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.5% · 2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-13T04:15:26+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-13T08:02:56+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00IFS HRES: 46.4% · 2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-13T04:15:26+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-13T08:02:56+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00ICON: 62.3% · 2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00ICON: 62.8% · 2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:0010-13 04:1510-13 09:3410-13 14:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T04:15:26+00:0067.2%31.2%61.1%51.9%50.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:0067.2%31.2%60.3%51.9%50.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:0067.2%31.2%60.3%51.9%50.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:0067.2%31.2%60.3%51.9%50.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:0067.2%31.2%60.3%51.9%50.4%
2026-10-13T08:02:56+00:0062.6%31.2%60.3%46.4%62.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:0062.6%31.2%60.3%46.4%62.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:0062.6%31.2%60.3%46.4%62.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:0062.6%31.2%60.3%46.4%62.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:0062.6%16.0%40.5%46.4%62.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:0062.6%16.0%40.5%46.4%62.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:0062.6%16.0%40.5%46.4%62.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:0062.6%16.0%40.5%46.4%62.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:0051.5%16.0%40.5%46.4%62.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:0051.5%17.1%40.5%46.4%62.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON63%74.8°F7.0°F2026-10-13 00:000.3944
NWS forecast53%73.0°F5.8°F2026-10-13 03:000.2852
AIFS Single52%72.7°F5.3°F2026-10-13 06:000.2652
IFS HRES46%71.9°F6.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.2153
WeatherNext 240%71.4°F4.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.1640
National Blend37%71.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 06:000.1354
IFS Ensemble17%68.2°F4.5°F2026-10-13 00:000.0292

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗