KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≤ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

18%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.2¢Risks 22.25u

WN2NO 77.8¢Risks 77.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.75u · WN2 −77.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	97.1%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	25.2%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	91.8%	3.9%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	12.2%	8.7%	69.5%	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	3.8%	4.1%	3.6%	—	10.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	2.1%	1.8%	11.4%	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	2.7%	0.2%	43.6%	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	98.8%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	27.2%	1.5%	97.5%	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	19.6%	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	30.7%	5.9%	99.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	14.5%	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	30.6%	11.0%	23.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	11.3%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	19.0%	27.9%	15.9%	—	74.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	17.7%	51.0%	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	15.1%	19.7%	24.3%	—	32.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	7.6%	19.0%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	9.4%	15.5%	29.2%	100.0%	23.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	5.4%	12.3%	100.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	10.0%	11.0%	19.1%	35.2%	17.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	14.5%	10.8%	21.6%	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	17.4%	8.5%	22.7%	100.0%	17.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	21.9%	11.5%	23.8%	—	25.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	25.1%	13.4%	28.4%	36.8%	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	14.7%	11.1%	26.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	13.0%	8.9%	23.4%	19.1%	17.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	14.4%	3.4%	18.1%	—	21.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	16.1%	2.9%	19.2%	17.1%	21.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	7.9%	3.4%	11.5%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	42%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1781
IFS HRES	18%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0324
IFS Ensemble	8%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0066
AIFS Single	3%	69.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0007
WeatherNext 2	2%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0005
NWS forecast	2%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.0004
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-LE61
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗