KRDU / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≤ 61°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

18%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 22.2¢Risks 22.25u

WN2NO 77.8¢Risks 77.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +77.75u · WN2 −77.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:13+00:00	24.3%	16.3%	2.2%	37.4%	20.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	24.3%	16.3%	2.2%	37.4%	20.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	24.3%	16.3%	2.2%	37.4%	20.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	24.3%	16.3%	2.2%	37.4%	20.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	24.3%	16.3%	2.2%	37.4%	20.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	24.3%	16.3%	2.5%	37.4%	20.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	24.3%	28.2%	2.5%	37.4%	20.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	24.3%	28.2%	2.5%	37.4%	20.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	1.4%	28.4%	2.5%	37.4%	20.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	1.4%	28.4%	2.5%	37.4%	20.5%
2026-10-15T15:33:50+00:00	1.4%	27.0%	2.5%	37.4%	20.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	1.4%	27.0%	2.5%	37.4%	20.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	1.4%	27.0%	0.7%	37.4%	20.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00	1.4%	27.0%	0.7%	37.4%	20.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	1.4%	27.0%	0.7%	37.4%	20.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	1.4%	27.0%	0.7%	37.4%	20.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	12.4%	27.0%	0.7%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	12.4%	27.0%	0.7%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	12.4%	27.0%	0.7%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	12.4%	27.0%	0.7%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	12.4%	27.0%	3.6%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	12.4%	27.0%	3.6%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	12.4%	27.0%	3.6%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	6.4%	27.0%	3.6%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00	6.4%	27.0%	3.6%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	6.4%	27.0%	3.6%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	6.4%	27.0%	3.6%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:57+00:00	6.4%	27.0%	3.6%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	6.4%	27.0%	3.4%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	6.4%	27.0%	3.4%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	6.4%	27.0%	3.4%	39.7%	21.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	11.2%	27.0%	3.4%	39.7%	13.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	11.2%	27.0%	3.4%	39.7%	13.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	11.2%	27.0%	3.4%	39.7%	13.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	11.2%	27.0%	3.4%	39.7%	13.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	11.2%	27.0%	3.4%	39.7%	13.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:08+00:00	11.2%	55.0%	5.5%	39.7%	13.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	11.2%	55.0%	5.5%	39.7%	13.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	11.2%	55.0%	5.5%	39.7%	13.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:07+00:00	6.4%	55.0%	5.5%	50.0%	13.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	6.4%	55.0%	5.5%	50.0%	13.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:16+00:00	6.4%	52.2%	5.5%	50.0%	13.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	6.4%	52.2%	5.5%	50.0%	13.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	6.4%	52.2%	5.5%	50.0%	13.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	6.4%	52.2%	1.6%	50.0%	13.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	6.4%	52.2%	1.6%	50.0%	13.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	6.4%	52.2%	1.6%	50.0%	13.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	4.0%	52.2%	1.6%	50.0%	11.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	4.0%	52.2%	1.6%	50.0%	11.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	4.0%	52.2%	1.6%	50.0%	11.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	4.0%	52.2%	1.6%	50.0%	11.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	4.0%	52.2%	1.6%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	4.0%	52.2%	2.2%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	4.0%	52.2%	2.2%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	4.0%	52.2%	2.2%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	2.4%	52.2%	2.2%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	2.4%	52.2%	2.2%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	2.4%	52.2%	2.2%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	2.4%	52.2%	2.2%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00	2.4%	52.2%	2.2%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	2.4%	52.2%	2.9%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	2.4%	52.2%	2.9%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	2.4%	52.2%	2.9%	23.0%	11.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00	1.8%	52.2%	2.9%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	1.8%	52.2%	2.9%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	1.8%	52.2%	2.9%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	1.8%	52.2%	2.9%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	1.8%	52.2%	2.9%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	1.8%	8.1%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	1.8%	8.1%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	1.8%	8.1%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	1.1%	8.1%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	1.1%	8.5%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	1.1%	6.9%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	1.1%	6.9%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	1.1%	6.9%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	1.1%	6.9%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	1.1%	6.9%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	1.1%	6.9%	2.1%	15.9%	10.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	1.9%	6.9%	2.1%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	1.9%	6.9%	2.1%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	1.9%	6.9%	2.1%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	1.9%	6.9%	2.1%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	1.9%	6.9%	2.5%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	1.9%	6.9%	2.5%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	1.9%	6.9%	2.5%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	1.9%	6.9%	2.5%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	1.6%	6.9%	2.5%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	1.6%	6.9%	2.5%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	1.6%	6.9%	2.5%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:48+00:00	1.6%	6.9%	2.5%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	1.6%	6.9%	1.7%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	1.6%	6.9%	1.7%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	1.6%	6.9%	1.7%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	1.6%	6.9%	1.7%	13.6%	12.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00	1.2%	6.9%	1.7%	12.4%	31.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	1.2%	6.9%	1.7%	12.4%	31.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	1.2%	6.9%	1.7%	12.4%	31.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	1.2%	6.9%	1.7%	12.4%	31.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	1.2%	5.1%	2.0%	12.4%	31.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	1.2%	5.1%	2.0%	12.4%	31.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	1.2%	5.1%	2.0%	12.4%	31.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	1.2%	5.1%	2.0%	12.4%	31.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	2.1%	5.4%	2.0%	12.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:36+00:00	2.1%	5.4%	2.0%	12.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	2.1%	8.1%	2.0%	12.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	2.1%	8.1%	2.0%	12.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	2.1%	8.1%	2.7%	12.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	2.1%	8.1%	2.7%	12.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	2.1%	8.1%	2.7%	12.3%	31.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	2.5%	8.1%	2.7%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	2.5%	8.1%	2.7%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	2.5%	8.1%	2.7%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	2.5%	8.1%	2.7%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	2.5%	8.1%	2.7%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	2.5%	8.1%	2.9%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	2.5%	8.1%	2.9%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	2.5%	8.1%	2.9%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	2.7%	8.1%	2.9%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	2.7%	8.1%	2.9%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	2.7%	8.1%	2.9%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	2.7%	8.1%	2.9%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	2.7%	8.1%	2.9%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	2.7%	8.1%	2.3%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	2.7%	8.1%	2.3%	18.0%	42.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	2.7%	8.1%	2.3%	18.0%	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	42%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1781
IFS HRES	18%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0324
IFS Ensemble	8%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0066
AIFS Single	3%	69.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0007
WeatherNext 2	2%	67.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0005
NWS forecast	2%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.0004
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 61°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261019-TMAX-LE61
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 61°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗