KRDU / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

93%

48%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.75u

EPSNO 26.2¢Risks 26.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.25u · EPS −26.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	86.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	96.4%	—	—	88.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	92.2%	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.8%	14.3%	93.8%	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	94.0%	52.8%	22.4%	—	88.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	95.4%	97.3%	55.8%	—	78.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	90.3%	97.3%	36.5%	—	67.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	92.8%	84.6%	86.0%	—	71.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	0.8%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	95.7%	89.5%	71.4%	—	63.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	91.2%	88.1%	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	95.7%	93.0%	56.1%	—	29.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	94.5%	89.6%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	95.9%	94.5%	86.1%	—	81.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	97.9%	95.4%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	97.7%	96.8%	89.8%	—	89.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	97.5%	98.0%	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	96.7%	98.3%	92.2%	0.5%	89.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	95.8%	98.8%	—	—	88.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	95.5%	97.9%	93.0%	—	89.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	90.8%	96.7%	0.0%	—	88.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	91.5%	97.5%	90.6%	0.1%	87.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	95.7%	96.0%	89.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	96.3%	97.4%	92.5%	93.7%	92.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.4%	96.5%	98.5%	92.8%	—	90.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	97.0%	99.0%	92.1%	93.9%	92.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	98.8%	99.2%	93.8%	—	94.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.6%	99.8%	96.8%	98.2%	96.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	99.9%	97.3%	—	95.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	78.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	75.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	99%	74.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	72.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	65.2°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗