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KRDU / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
>99%
WN2
>99%
ICON
99%
HRES
93%
EPS
48%
Consensus
96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.75u
VS
EPSNO 26.2¢Risks 26.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +26.25u · EPS −26.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00AIFS Single: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.4% · 2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 89.6% · 2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00IFS HRES: 89.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 89.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 89.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:00ICON: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00ICON: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00ICON: 97.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00ICON: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00ICON: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00ICON: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 07:4410-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:14+00:0099.7%47.7%99.4%89.6%97.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:0099.7%47.7%99.7%89.6%97.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:0099.7%47.7%99.7%89.6%97.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:0099.7%47.7%99.7%89.6%97.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:0099.8%47.7%99.7%93.0%98.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0099.8%47.7%99.7%93.0%98.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:0099.8%47.7%99.7%93.0%98.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0099.8%47.7%99.7%93.0%98.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0099.8%47.7%99.7%93.0%98.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single>99%78.2°F4.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2>99%75.8°F3.7°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
ICON99%74.4°F4.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES93%72.1°F4.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend63%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%66.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble48%65.2°F5.2°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗