KRDU / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

50%

18%

18%

14%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.10u

ICONNO 53.9¢Risks 53.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.90u · ICON −53.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:56+00:00	70.3%	41.5%	71.3%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	70.3%	41.5%	71.3%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	70.3%	41.5%	71.3%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	70.3%	41.5%	71.3%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	70.3%	26.6%	63.4%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	70.3%	26.6%	63.4%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	70.3%	26.6%	63.4%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	70.3%	26.6%	63.4%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	63.2%	26.6%	63.4%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	63.2%	29.1%	63.4%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	63.2%	29.1%	63.4%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	63.2%	29.1%	63.4%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	63.2%	29.1%	61.8%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	63.2%	29.1%	61.8%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	63.2%	29.1%	61.8%	53.8%	13.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	71.5%	29.1%	61.8%	53.8%	66.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	71.5%	29.1%	61.8%	53.8%	66.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	71.5%	29.1%	61.8%	53.8%	66.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:05+00:00	71.5%	29.1%	61.8%	53.8%	66.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	71.5%	29.1%	61.8%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	71.5%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	71.5%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	71.5%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	65.9%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	65.9%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:32+00:00	65.9%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	65.9%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	65.9%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	65.9%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	65.9%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	65.9%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	66.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	64.7%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	64.7%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	64.7%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	64.7%	29.1%	75.3%	45.6%	70.5%
2026-10-14T10:32:23+00:00	64.7%	29.1%	75.3%	28.1%	70.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:40+00:00	64.7%	18.0%	35.6%	28.1%	70.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	64.7%	18.0%	35.6%	28.1%	70.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	64.7%	18.0%	35.6%	28.1%	70.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	48.5%	18.0%	35.6%	28.1%	70.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	49.3%	18.0%	35.8%	28.2%	70.5%
2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00	71.2%	18.5%	50.0%	18.0%	9.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	71.2%	18.5%	50.0%	18.0%	9.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	71.2%	18.5%	50.0%	18.0%	9.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	71.2%	18.5%	50.0%	18.0%	9.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	71.2%	18.5%	50.0%	18.0%	9.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	78.3%	18.5%	50.0%	18.0%	13.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	78.3%	18.5%	50.0%	18.0%	13.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	78.3%	18.5%	50.0%	18.0%	13.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	78.3%	18.5%	50.0%	18.0%	13.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	76.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	74.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	71.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	71.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	70.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗