KRDU / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

50%

18%

18%

14%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.10u

ICONNO 53.9¢Risks 53.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.90u · ICON −53.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	64.7%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	0.5%	50.7%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	48.6%	6.5%	0.9%	—	34.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	51.5%	60.8%	6.6%	—	19.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	33.7%	58.3%	1.9%	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	36.7%	21.8%	23.6%	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	0.0%	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	43.4%	26.5%	9.3%	—	6.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	22.6%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	39.6%	30.7%	3.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	33.4%	22.2%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	36.4%	31.4%	16.0%	—	11.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	46.2%	32.6%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	42.3%	36.6%	17.7%	—	17.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	38.2%	42.0%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	31.2%	41.8%	18.3%	0.0%	13.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	25.3%	44.7%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	22.1%	33.1%	16.2%	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	11.2%	24.0%	0.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	10.5%	25.1%	9.4%	0.0%	7.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	16.0%	16.7%	7.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	15.1%	19.1%	8.5%	10.0%	8.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	13.5%	22.8%	7.2%	—	5.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	12.7%	24.0%	5.3%	7.0%	5.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	19.1%	23.2%	5.4%	—	5.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	28.0%	33.1%	7.8%	12.2%	7.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	42.5%	7.0%	—	4.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	76.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	74.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	71.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	71.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	14%	70.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗