KRDU / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 14.3¢Risks 14.35u

EPSNO 85.7¢Risks 85.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +85.65u · EPS −85.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:56+00:00	29.7%	5.0%	28.7%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	29.7%	5.0%	28.7%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	29.7%	5.0%	28.7%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	29.7%	5.0%	28.7%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	29.7%	1.7%	19.3%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	29.7%	1.7%	19.3%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	29.7%	1.7%	19.3%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	29.7%	1.7%	19.3%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	23.3%	1.7%	19.4%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	23.3%	2.0%	19.4%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	23.3%	2.0%	19.4%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	23.3%	2.0%	19.4%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	23.3%	2.0%	18.3%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	23.3%	2.0%	18.3%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	23.3%	2.0%	18.3%	19.7%	4.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	18.3%	19.7%	43.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	18.3%	19.7%	43.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	18.3%	19.7%	43.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:05+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	18.3%	19.7%	43.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	18.3%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	30.9%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	25.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	25.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:32+00:00	25.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	25.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	25.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	25.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	25.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	25.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	43.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	22.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	37.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	22.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	37.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	22.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	37.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	22.5%	2.0%	30.1%	14.5%	37.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:23+00:00	22.5%	2.0%	30.1%	6.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:40+00:00	22.5%	1.6%	4.7%	6.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	22.5%	1.6%	4.7%	6.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	22.5%	1.6%	4.7%	6.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	12.1%	1.6%	4.7%	6.8%	37.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	12.9%	1.6%	4.9%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	4.9%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	4.9%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	4.9%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	4.3%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	4.3%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	4.3%	6.8%	37.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	16.7%	1.8%	4.3%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	16.7%	1.8%	4.3%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	16.7%	1.8%	4.3%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	16.7%	1.8%	4.3%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	16.7%	1.8%	4.3%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	16.7%	1.8%	7.0%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	16.7%	1.8%	7.0%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	16.7%	1.8%	7.0%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	7.0%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	7.0%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	7.0%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T04:01:55+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	7.0%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	7.0%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	10.7%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	10.7%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	12.9%	1.8%	10.7%	7.2%	25.7%
2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	10.7%	7.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	10.7%	7.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	10.7%	7.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	10.7%	7.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	10.7%	7.3%	19.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	7.1%	2.1%	4.4%	7.3%	20.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	7.1%	2.1%	4.4%	7.3%	20.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:50+00:00	7.1%	2.3%	4.4%	7.3%	20.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	7.1%	2.3%	4.4%	7.3%	20.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	7.1%	2.3%	6.0%	7.3%	20.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00	7.1%	2.3%	6.0%	7.3%	20.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	7.1%	2.3%	6.0%	7.3%	20.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	7.1%	2.3%	6.0%	7.3%	20.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	1.5%	2.3%	6.0%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	1.5%	2.3%	6.0%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	1.5%	2.3%	6.0%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	1.5%	2.3%	6.0%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	1.5%	2.3%	3.6%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	1.5%	2.3%	3.6%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	1.5%	2.3%	3.6%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	3.6%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	3.6%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	3.6%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	3.6%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:57+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	3.6%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	4.7%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	4.7%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	15.7%	2.3%	4.7%	6.2%	24.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	23.6%	0.2%	5.6%	4.1%	11.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	23.6%	0.2%	6.6%	4.1%	11.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:53+00:00	23.6%	0.2%	6.6%	4.1%	11.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	23.6%	0.2%	6.6%	4.1%	11.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	28.5%	0.2%	6.6%	4.1%	11.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	28.5%	0.2%	6.6%	4.1%	11.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	28.5%	0.2%	6.6%	4.1%	11.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	28.5%	0.2%	6.6%	4.1%	11.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	28%	77.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	12%	74.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	74.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	71.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.2°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261020-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗