KRDU / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 14.3¢Risks 14.35u

EPSNO 85.7¢Risks 85.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +85.65u · EPS −85.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	28.5%	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	15.2%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	15.9%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	13.7%	0.5%	0.0%	—	7.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	14.4%	20.4%	0.5%	—	2.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	5.8%	17.4%	0.1%	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.2%	2.4%	2.7%	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.0%	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.7%	3.0%	0.5%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	2.1%	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.7%	3.4%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	3.8%	1.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	4.1%	3.0%	0.9%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	6.4%	3.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	4.9%	3.5%	0.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	3.5%	4.4%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	2.1%	4.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	1.2%	4.2%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.8%	1.9%	0.4%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.2%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	28%	77.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	12%	74.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	74.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	71.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	70.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.2°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261020-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗