KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

67%

42%

40%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.9¢Risks 64.85u

ICONNO 35.1¢Risks 35.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.15u · ICON −35.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	76.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	28.8%	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	36.4%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	92.0%	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	14.3%	93.8%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	75.4%	81.1%	12.6%	—	48.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	86.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	12.0%	63.6%	39.9%	—	53.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	76.6%	67.0%	49.2%	—	48.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	87.3%	65.5%	50.8%	—	16.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	5.3%	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	82.7%	52.5%	55.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	63.4%	59.3%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	80.4%	59.6%	40.5%	—	36.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	58.9%	64.9%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	63.6%	62.7%	32.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	50.0%	56.6%	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	51.0%	66.1%	41.3%	—	27.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	56.0%	56.0%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	47.9%	58.2%	19.0%	—	25.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	51.1%	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	52.2%	55.5%	31.1%	—	28.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	48.9%	55.6%	0.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	43.0%	59.2%	20.7%	0.1%	20.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	48.8%	59.5%	20.8%	—	26.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	55.0%	66.9%	28.7%	40.1%	28.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	69.8%	23.8%	—	21.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	73.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	71.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	69.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	67.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗