KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

67%

42%

40%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.9¢Risks 64.85u

ICONNO 35.1¢Risks 35.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.15u · ICON −35.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	91.0%	56.4%	87.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	91.0%	56.4%	87.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	91.0%	56.4%	87.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	91.0%	56.4%	87.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	91.0%	56.4%	87.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	91.0%	56.4%	87.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	93.1%	82.3%	91.0%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	93.1%	82.3%	91.0%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	93.1%	82.3%	91.0%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	93.1%	82.3%	91.0%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	93.1%	82.3%	89.6%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	93.1%	82.3%	89.6%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	93.1%	82.3%	89.6%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	93.1%	82.3%	89.6%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	89.6%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	89.6%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	89.6%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:48+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	89.6%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	94.0%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	94.0%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	94.0%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	93.6%	82.3%	94.0%	43.6%	74.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00	95.1%	82.3%	94.0%	36.9%	58.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	95.1%	82.3%	94.0%	36.9%	58.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	95.1%	82.3%	94.0%	36.9%	58.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	95.1%	82.3%	94.0%	36.9%	58.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	95.1%	76.2%	95.2%	36.9%	58.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	95.1%	76.2%	95.2%	36.9%	58.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	95.1%	76.2%	95.2%	36.9%	58.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	95.1%	76.2%	95.2%	36.9%	58.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	93.9%	75.5%	95.2%	36.8%	57.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	91.6%	70.8%	94.2%	37.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	91.6%	70.8%	92.7%	37.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	91.6%	70.8%	92.7%	37.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	91.6%	70.8%	92.7%	37.7%	55.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00	88.6%	70.8%	92.7%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	88.6%	70.8%	92.7%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	88.6%	70.8%	92.7%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	88.6%	70.8%	92.7%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	88.6%	70.8%	92.7%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	88.6%	68.3%	90.2%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	88.6%	68.3%	90.2%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	88.6%	68.3%	90.2%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	87.1%	68.3%	90.2%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	87.3%	68.3%	90.2%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	90.2%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	90.2%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	90.2%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	44.2%	48.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	87.3%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	89.7%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	89.7%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	89.7%	67.2%	86.4%	42.3%	40.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	73.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	71.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	69.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	67.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗