KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

66%

48%

27%

21%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

ICONNO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.40u · ICON −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	19.7%	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	25.4%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	85.9%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	8.0%	88.6%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	76.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.9%	63.1%	70.2%	6.7%	—	34.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	6.2%	49.3%	26.6%	—	39.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	63.5%	52.3%	34.4%	—	33.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	77.0%	50.0%	35.2%	—	8.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	2.1%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	70.0%	36.1%	38.5%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	46.6%	42.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	66.2%	42.2%	24.8%	—	21.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	41.1%	47.3%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	45.4%	44.5%	17.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	31.8%	37.9%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	32.1%	47.1%	24.0%	—	13.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	36.3%	36.3%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	28.5%	37.8%	8.2%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	30.7%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	31.1%	34.1%	14.9%	—	13.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	27.6%	33.6%	0.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	22.4%	36.3%	8.1%	0.0%	8.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	26.3%	35.9%	7.8%	—	10.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	30.9%	42.6%	11.8%	19.1%	11.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	44.9%	8.7%	—	7.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	73.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	71.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	70.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	68.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	67.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗