KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

44%

37%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.7¢Risks 40.65u

HRESNO 59.3¢Risks 59.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.35u · HRES −59.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	12.6%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	16.4%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	77.4%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	4.0%	80.6%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	49.3%	57.0%	3.2%	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.8%	35.0%	16.1%	—	26.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	48.5%	37.2%	21.6%	—	21.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	63.3%	34.5%	21.8%	—	3.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	0.8%	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	54.2%	21.9%	23.8%	—	14.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	30.3%	26.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	49.1%	26.2%	13.1%	—	10.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	24.9%	30.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	28.2%	27.4%	8.3%	—	8.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	17.1%	21.7%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	17.1%	28.7%	11.6%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	19.7%	19.7%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	13.9%	20.4%	2.8%	—	4.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	15.0%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	14.9%	16.9%	5.6%	—	4.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	12.3%	16.1%	0.0%	—	3.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	9.0%	17.5%	2.4%	0.0%	2.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	10.8%	16.7%	2.2%	—	3.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	13.0%	20.8%	3.5%	6.7%	3.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	21.9%	2.2%	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	77%	76.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	70.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	66.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	62.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗