KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

44%

37%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.7¢Risks 40.65u

HRESNO 59.3¢Risks 59.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.35u · HRES −59.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:55+00:00	66.5%	43.7%	68.4%	23.4%	67.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	66.5%	43.7%	68.4%	23.4%	67.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	66.5%	43.7%	69.1%	23.4%	67.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	66.5%	43.7%	69.1%	23.4%	67.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	66.5%	43.7%	69.1%	23.4%	67.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:14+00:00	7.7%	43.7%	69.1%	34.1%	16.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	7.7%	43.7%	69.1%	34.1%	16.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	7.7%	43.7%	69.1%	34.1%	16.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	7.7%	43.7%	69.1%	34.1%	16.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	7.7%	43.7%	69.1%	34.1%	16.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	7.7%	43.7%	65.0%	34.1%	16.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	7.7%	29.2%	65.0%	34.1%	16.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	7.7%	29.2%	65.0%	34.1%	16.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	83.3%	29.2%	65.0%	34.1%	16.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	83.3%	29.2%	65.0%	34.1%	16.9%
2026-10-16T04:23:57+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	65.0%	46.4%	68.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	54.3%	46.4%	68.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	54.3%	46.4%	68.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	54.3%	46.4%	68.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	3.0%	30.9%	54.3%	46.4%	76.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	3.0%	30.9%	54.3%	46.4%	76.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	3.0%	30.9%	54.3%	46.4%	76.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	3.0%	30.9%	54.3%	46.4%	76.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	3.0%	30.9%	54.3%	46.4%	76.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:08+00:00	3.0%	8.3%	44.2%	46.4%	76.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	3.0%	8.3%	44.2%	46.4%	76.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	3.0%	8.3%	44.2%	46.4%	76.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:07+00:00	37.4%	8.3%	44.2%	4.5%	76.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	37.4%	8.3%	44.2%	4.5%	76.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	77%	76.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	71.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	70.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	66.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	62.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗