KRDU / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

20%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.3¢Risks 13.30u

EPSNO 86.7¢Risks 86.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.70u · EPS −86.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	1.5%	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	34.8%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	0.2%	37.4%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	10.5%	14.5%	0.1%	—	2.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	4.8%	1.1%	—	2.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.4%	4.8%	1.7%	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.5%	3.6%	1.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	8.7%	1.2%	1.5%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.2%	1.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	5.9%	1.5%	0.4%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	1.2%	1.8%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.4%	1.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.4%	0.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.4%	1.2%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.5%	0.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.2%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	75.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	75.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	74.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	66.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗