KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

55%

53%

41%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.0¢Risks 62.00u

EPSNO 38.0¢Risks 38.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.00u · EPS −38.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	87.5%	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	84.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	66.4%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	4.0%	33.0%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	57.7%	33.6%	6.5%	—	30.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	84.8%	6.4%	29.7%	—	10.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	80.5%	4.8%	50.0%	—	19.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	74.5%	40.5%	30.1%	—	23.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	12.6%	54.9%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	68.5%	58.3%	42.5%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.7%	43.2%	43.2%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	57.0%	60.4%	38.8%	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	52.7%	55.4%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	45.4%	62.7%	24.4%	—	25.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	52.8%	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	51.9%	52.9%	29.6%	—	28.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	53.0%	55.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	45.9%	58.2%	29.4%	—	31.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	57.4%	58.4%	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	62.9%	67.9%	31.1%	36.1%	32.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	66.4%	0.0%	—	27.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	74.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	73.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	71.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	70.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	69.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗