KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

55%

53%

41%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 62.0¢Risks 62.00u

EPSNO 38.0¢Risks 38.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +38.00u · EPS −38.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:48+00:00	88.3%	40.4%	84.1%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	88.3%	40.4%	88.8%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	88.3%	40.4%	88.8%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	88.3%	40.4%	88.8%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	88.3%	40.4%	88.8%	41.8%	79.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00	89.3%	40.4%	88.8%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	89.3%	40.4%	88.8%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	89.3%	40.4%	88.8%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	89.3%	40.4%	88.8%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	89.3%	32.6%	91.0%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	89.3%	32.6%	91.0%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	89.3%	32.6%	91.0%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	89.3%	32.6%	91.0%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	87.6%	32.6%	91.0%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:36+00:00	87.6%	32.6%	91.0%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	87.6%	27.6%	91.0%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:50+00:00	87.6%	27.6%	91.0%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	87.6%	27.6%	89.1%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	87.6%	27.6%	89.1%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	87.6%	27.6%	89.1%	39.0%	69.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	86.7%	27.6%	89.1%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	86.7%	27.6%	89.1%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	86.7%	27.6%	89.1%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	86.7%	27.6%	89.1%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	86.7%	27.6%	89.1%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	86.7%	27.6%	85.8%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	86.7%	27.6%	85.8%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	86.7%	27.6%	85.8%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	81.4%	27.6%	85.8%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	81.4%	27.6%	85.8%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	81.4%	27.6%	85.8%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	81.4%	27.6%	85.8%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	81.4%	27.6%	85.8%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	81.4%	27.6%	80.5%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	81.4%	27.6%	80.5%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	81.4%	27.6%	80.5%	39.0%	59.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00	76.6%	27.6%	80.5%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	76.6%	27.6%	80.5%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	76.6%	27.6%	80.5%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	76.6%	27.6%	80.5%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	76.6%	27.6%	80.5%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	76.6%	42.6%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	76.6%	42.6%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	76.6%	42.6%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	78.7%	42.6%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	78.8%	42.6%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00	78.8%	41.4%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	78.8%	41.4%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	78.8%	41.4%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	78.8%	41.4%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	78.8%	41.4%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00	78.8%	41.4%	76.2%	45.5%	58.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	79.4%	41.4%	76.2%	55.4%	53.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	79.4%	41.4%	76.2%	55.4%	53.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	79.4%	41.4%	76.2%	55.4%	53.0%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	79.4%	41.4%	76.2%	55.4%	53.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	79.4%	41.4%	76.2%	55.4%	53.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	79.4%	41.4%	79.8%	55.4%	53.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	79.4%	41.4%	79.8%	55.4%	53.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	79.4%	41.4%	79.8%	55.4%	53.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	82.6%	41.4%	79.8%	55.4%	53.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	82.6%	41.4%	79.8%	55.4%	53.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	82.6%	41.4%	79.8%	55.4%	53.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	74.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	73.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	71.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	70.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	69.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗