KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

49%

46%

34%

18%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 43.0¢Risks 43.05u

HRESNO 57.0¢Risks 56.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +56.95u · HRES −56.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	83.9%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	60.3%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	2.8%	27.1%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	50.7%	27.5%	4.5%	—	24.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	80.1%	4.4%	23.7%	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	74.9%	3.2%	42.4%	—	14.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	67.7%	33.0%	23.6%	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	8.8%	46.7%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	60.7%	50.0%	34.5%	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	35.0%	35.0%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	48.2%	51.7%	30.7%	—	15.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	43.7%	46.4%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	36.4%	53.7%	17.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	43.4%	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	42.3%	43.2%	21.8%	—	21.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	43.0%	45.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	35.9%	47.9%	21.2%	—	22.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	46.8%	47.9%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	52.2%	57.6%	22.1%	26.4%	23.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	55.6%	0.0%	—	19.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	68%	76.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	71.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	71.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	69.2°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	65.6°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗