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KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
68%
WN2
49%
EPS
46%
AIFS
34%
HRES
18%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 43.0¢Risks 43.05u
VS
HRESNO 57.0¢Risks 56.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +56.95u · HRES −56.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00AIFS Single: 73.6% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00AIFS Single: 34.4% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00AIFS Single: 34.4% · 2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00AIFS Single: 34.4% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00AIFS Single: 34.4% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.7% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 46.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.4% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.4% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.4% · 2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.4% · 2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 49.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00IFS HRES: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00IFS HRES: 17.9% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00ICON: 25.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00ICON: 68.2% · 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 20:0610-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:0021.7%57.6%62.5%25.9%25.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:0021.7%44.7%62.5%25.9%25.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:0021.7%44.7%62.5%25.9%25.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:0073.6%44.7%62.4%26.1%25.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:0073.6%44.7%62.4%26.1%25.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:0073.6%46.2%62.4%26.1%25.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:0073.6%46.2%62.4%26.1%25.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:0073.6%46.2%59.3%26.1%25.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:37+00:0073.6%46.2%59.3%26.1%25.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:0073.6%46.2%59.3%26.1%25.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:0073.6%46.2%59.3%26.1%25.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:0014.6%46.2%59.3%17.9%68.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:0014.6%46.2%59.3%17.9%68.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:0014.6%46.2%59.3%17.9%68.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:0014.6%46.2%59.3%17.9%68.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:0014.6%46.2%49.2%17.9%68.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:0014.7%46.2%49.2%17.9%68.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:0014.7%46.2%49.2%17.9%68.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:0034.4%46.2%49.2%17.9%68.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:15+00:0034.4%46.2%49.2%17.9%68.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:0034.4%46.2%49.2%17.9%68.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:0034.4%46.2%49.2%17.9%68.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON68%76.2°F9.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend55%72.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 249%71.4°F5.1°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%71.0°F5.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single34%69.2°F5.7°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
IFS HRES18%65.6°F6.4°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗