KRDU / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 12.2¢Risks 12.15u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 87.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +87.85u · EPS −87.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	39.5%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	14.8%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	2.5%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.2%	2.2%	0.1%	—	1.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	26.6%	0.1%	1.5%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	19.5%	0.0%	4.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	12.7%	2.1%	1.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.1%	4.3%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	8.0%	4.7%	1.9%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	1.8%	1.8%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	3.6%	4.3%	1.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	2.5%	2.9%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.4%	3.9%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.9%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.6%	1.7%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.5%	1.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.8%	1.7%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.4%	1.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.6%	2.3%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	1.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	24%	76.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	16%	75.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	73.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	72.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	3%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	69.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗