KRDU / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

73%

50%

15%

10%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.3¢Risks 43.30u

HRESNO 56.7¢Risks 56.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.70u · HRES −56.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.2%	—	—	—	—	75.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	55.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	54.1%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	2.0%	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	77.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	1.8%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	13.5%	17.1%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	66.4%	70.2%	14.1%	—	48.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	74.0%	62.3%	53.6%	—	36.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	30.3%	67.0%	28.3%	—	29.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	56.2%	—	—	24.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	33.0%	64.8%	20.1%	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	0.5%	56.5%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.7%	21.3%	65.5%	25.1%	—	20.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	13.7%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	14.1%	56.1%	17.2%	—	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	8.1%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	5.8%	52.8%	11.9%	—	5.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	13.7%	56.6%	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	10.2%	51.0%	19.7%	42.3%	7.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	53.0%	—	—	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	71.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	71.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	68.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	15%	63.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	62.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗