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KRDU / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
77%
AIFS
73%
EPS
50%
ICON
15%
HRES
10%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 43.3¢Risks 43.30u
VS
HRESNO 56.7¢Risks 56.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.70u · HRES −56.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 65.3% · 2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00AIFS Single: 63.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00AIFS Single: 73.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 50.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.5% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.6% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00ICON: 25.6% · 2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00ICON: 14.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:0010-19 15:1310-19 21:1510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:0065.3%50.0%86.5%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:0065.3%50.0%86.5%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:0065.3%50.0%86.5%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:0065.3%50.0%75.8%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:0065.3%50.0%75.8%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:0065.3%50.0%75.8%20.6%25.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:0063.7%50.0%75.8%10.0%14.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:0063.7%50.0%75.8%10.0%14.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:0063.7%50.0%75.8%10.0%14.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:0063.7%50.0%75.8%10.0%14.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:0063.7%50.0%75.8%10.0%14.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:0063.7%50.0%76.6%10.0%14.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:0063.7%50.0%76.6%10.0%14.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:0063.7%50.0%76.6%10.0%14.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:0073.0%50.0%76.6%10.0%14.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:0073.0%50.0%76.6%10.0%14.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:0073.0%50.0%76.6%10.0%14.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 277%71.2°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single73%71.3°F4.6°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend56%69.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%69.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble50%68.5°F2.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON15%63.4°F4.9°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS HRES10%62.1°F5.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗