KRDU / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

48%

26%

14%

11%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

HRESNO 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.75u · HRES −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	44.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	42.4%	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	0.8%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	7.5%	9.9%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	52.8%	57.0%	7.7%	—	34.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	60.8%	47.8%	39.2%	—	23.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	18.4%	52.3%	16.9%	—	17.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	40.7%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	20.1%	49.2%	10.8%	—	15.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	0.1%	40.3%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	11.2%	49.2%	13.8%	—	10.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	6.4%	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	6.5%	38.8%	8.3%	—	6.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	3.2%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	2.1%	34.7%	5.0%	—	1.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	5.9%	37.9%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	4.0%	32.1%	9.0%	24.7%	2.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	33.5%	—	—	2.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	70.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	68.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	65.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	64.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗